Egyptian Coalition for Human Rights and Development Election Observatory Issues a Study Entitled “Reading The General Trends of The Runoff Vote (Phase 1)” (2020 Parliament)

Sunday, December 6, 2020

Press Release

Egyptian Coalition for Human Rights and Development Election Observatory Issues a Study Entitled

“Reading The General Trends of The Runoff Vote (Phase 1) “

(2020 Parliament)

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The Electoral Observatory of the Egyptian Coalition for Human Rights and Development in collaboration with the Forum for Development and Human Rights Dialogue issued on Sunday a study entitled “Reading the General Trends of the Runoff Vote for The First Phase of the 2020 Parliamentary Elections.” 

The study drew attention to the fact that the technical statement of the National Electoral Commission came as a result of the run-off elections for the first phase of the 2020 Parliamentary elections, which were held in (13) governorates (Giza, Fayoum, Beni Suef, Menia, Assiut, New Valley, Sohag, Qena, Luxor, Aswan, Alexandria, Marsa Matrouh) on Monday and Tuesday, November (23 and 24), 2020 within the Arab Republic of Egypt in the context of the competitiveness between (220) candidates competing for (110) seats divided between (54) constituencies from which the seats of (two constituencies) are partially contested after the deduction of part of them through the first round within (16) constituency its results were determined by the achieving of candidates the condition in article (23).

The study several important observations and readings regarding the general trends of the first-stage run-off vote, which is the electoral process in which the implementation of its steps and procedures is accompanied by many scenes and details affecting its performance, which we summarize in the following notes:

1. The run-off for the first phase of the parliamentary elections has witnessed the conduct of electoral competitiveness within (13) governorates after the electoral process receded from the Red Sea governorate, where the competitiveness within its (three) constituencies was decided from the first round to become the (first and only) governorate among all governorates of the Republic, which resolves all its seats in two (individuals and lists) systems of the first round and without the need for the run-off.
2. The electoral process for Menia governorate was limited to (5) individual constituencies after (freezing) the electoral position of the constituency (Dayr Mawas), which issued a judicial ruling on its individual seat in the original nullity suit No. (1849) of the year 67 judiciary at the 19/10/2020 session with the accepted appeal No. (457) for the year 67 high judiciary.
3.  The National Electoral Commission has committed itself to implement (3) final provisions that include an amendment in the identification of persons running in the run-off elections in the governorates of the first phase.
4.  That the electoral process of the run-off has confirmed the heat of the competition, including a continuation of the phenomenon of grievance and legal objection to the collection and numerical counting of the votes of candidates before the National Electoral Commission, which included (248) grievances of the candidates on the results of the first round of the first stage and (245) to oppress the results of the first round of the second stage and (50) to oppress the results of the run-off for the first stage, which are the grievances that the commission considered and ended up not accepting some of them in form and rejecting others in subject.
5.  Competitiveness in the run-off between the main contenders of popularity and electoral experience that supported their access to the crucial stations of the scene has declined, which we can monitor given the developments of the numerical position of the competitors, where the total number of candidates reached (3,964) candidates among them (3095) independent candidates and (869) party candidates in the near-absolute dominance of independents on the competitive scene in terms of limiting party competitiveness to (36) political parties with the absence of (68) parties from the electoral scene completely.
6. Electoral competitiveness has seen the participation of moderate voters for reasons that we can attribute mostly to the modernity of the electoral system, the lack of understanding of the mechanisms of its application by large segments of the electorate or its objectives and objectives, as well as its complexities with regard to the mechanism of distribution of seats and the shares of each district, which vary according to the constituency.
7. The map of the candidates who qualified for the run-off carried a remarkable diversity in a variety of areas, making that sample a model of the gains and pros of the electoral scene starting from the diversity of candidates geographically where the run-off takes place on all seats in (10) governorates led by El-Beheira governorate with (36) candidates competing for (18) seats followed by Menia (30) and Sohag (28) while the smallest number of was in Matrouh and the New Valley governorates with (4) candidates in each. The run-off was conducted partially in (3) governorates led by Alexandria with (26) candidates after the claiming of (3) seats and Al Fayoum with (14) candidates after the claiming of (3) seats while Giza is conducting the run-off between (4) candidates competing for (two seats) after the claiming (21) in the first round.
8. The representatives of the parties in the run-off round were divided between (11) political parties representing (37.9%) of the parties participating in the initial phase which are (29) political parties, which are largely presented by the Nation’s Future Party (85) candidates representing (63.9%) of the party candidates, followed by the Republican People’s Party with (18) candidates, the Homeland Defenders Party (10) and al-Nour (7), while (3) parties had only one candidate each (National Progressive Unionist Party, The Wafd Party and Modern Egypt Party).
9. The number of voters registered to vote in runoff has declined from (31,719,224) voters in the first round to (25,239,393) voters in the run-off as a direct result of the decline in the numbers of public committees and individual constituencies conducted competitively from (71) individual districts comprising (14) geographical governorates to (56) constituencies comprising (13) governorates.
10. With regard to the analysis of the factional competitiveness of seats and winners, of the (54) constituencies that witnessed the run-off of the first phase governorates, there were (52) constituencies in which the decisive competitiveness was held on (all) the seats allocated to them in accordance with the Electoral Division Act No. (174) for the year 2020, while the two constituencies (Al-Dekhila and Al-Badrashin) witnessed  (partial) runoff on a number of seats allocated to them after the settlement of candidates for the competition for their seats from the first round by achieving an absolute majority of the correct votes (50% +1).
11. As for the political biases of the winners of the run-off, the runoff saw a continuation of party dominance over the competitive landscape in exchange for the accumulation of losses and setbacks for independents who failed to maintain their seats or regain their presence in the 2015 parliament.
12. With regard to women and with the final announcement of the lists of candidates to compete for individual seats, the total number of female candidates reached (368) candidates; (9.3%) of the total nominations, of which the first round (152) was distributed on (44) electoral constituencies. However, women were absent from (27) constituencies. The run-off revealed that (two) candidates won for the constituencies of (Damanhour-Kafr Al-Dawwar) in Beheira governorate, while the Alexandria candidates failed to win any seat in the (Al-Montazah-Al-Raml) constituencies and thus, women’s share of the (142) seats allocated to the individual system stopped in the first phase with (3) seats (2.1%) in a situation that calls for reviewing and evaluating performances and positions related to the image and position of women in the national electoral system and within political parties.
13. With regard to Copts and with the announcement of the results of the vote for the first round of the first phase, the crisis emerged clearly in the inability of any Christian candidate to win a seat in his constituency and go to the run-off with (7) candidates belonging to (3) governorates (Menia, Assiut and Qena) and divided between (3) political groups (independents, Nation’s Future Party and Republican People’s Party) as well as (3) current MPs in addition to (4) new competitors.
14. With regards to the votes and how seats are made, the study stated that among the (220) candidates running in the run-off or among the (110) candidates who were able to resolve the competitiveness and win a parliamentary seat, (5) candidates were able to achieve voting numbers exceeding (100,000) votes each in a standard of popularity and trade-off and a clear statement of popular bias in favour of each of them distributed between (3) governorates (Beni Suef, Menia and Assiut) led by candidates of the Nation’s Future Party in (Beba) constituency in Beni Suef governorate and followed by Al-Nour party candidate in (Nasser Center) constituency in Beni Suef governorate (the governorate acquired the top three most popular voting positions) followed by a candidate for the Nation’s future party in the (Menia and Assiut) governorates.
15. With regard to the deputies in the run-off round, the results of the popular vote for the first round of the first phase showed that the current MPs directly won (9) seats against (23) new candidates (28.1%) of the winners while (55) current MPs went to the runoff round against (165) new candidates with a percentage of (25%) with their (complete) absence from the run-off in (3) governorates (Giza, Luxor and New Valley) in a clear expression of the state of popular anger and dissatisfaction with the overall performance of the council, whether public policies or as the implementation of accounting rules and control of the executive branch for the benefit of citizens.
16. The total number of seats that have ended competitively is (467) parliamentary seats (82.2%) of the total seats allocated to the popular vote which is divided between the total seats of the list system (284) seats and the winning seats of the initial voting round of the first stage (32) seats and the second stage (41) seats and seats of the run-off for the first stage (110) seats.