Tuesday , August 4 , 2020
In conjunction with setting the next August 9 and 10 for Egyptians living abroad to vote in the Senate elections, FDHRD issued today an estimation paper on the voting of Egyptians abroad entitled “Challenges of the Popular Crowed in the Time of Corona.”
The paper initially dealt with the legislative development of voting for Egyptians residing abroad, then the paper presented voting trends for Egyptians in Western countries, where it clarified that despite the presence of Egyptian communities residing in an almost stable manner in Western societies, and even the presence of focal points with heavy relative weights from families, the percentages of turnout and voting In the general elections, among them, they came with very limited behavior, with which it is difficult to find convincing justifications.
The estimation paper issued by FDHRD also dealt with the votes of Egyptians in the Arab countries, which indicated in this regard that the vote of Egyptians residing in Arab countries still represents an important number in the Egyptian electoral equation for various reasons. Perhaps the most prominent of which is that these Egyptians have temporary residence and are subject to job opportunities and the resulting high income with close communication and connection with the internal Egyptian affairs and tracking its developments. Unlike the situation for Egyptians residing in Western countries who moved there for the purposes of immigration or permanent settlement without tracking or interfering in the course of events except to the extent of their impact on their lives and the lives of their extended families who still live inside.
The paper also referred to the possible trends of Egyptians voting abroad in the Senate elections 2020, as it indicated that the spread of the Corona virus would possibly reshape the situation in countries abroad, and that the voting scene would change greatly, especially with the occurrence of mass infections for a long period of time. In a large number of countries in the world, including the Gulf states, Europe and the United States, which have the largest number of voting blocs for Egyptians abroad, which will increase the chances of a major shift in the voting trends of Egyptian voters abroad and their orientations in the upcoming Senate elections.
The paper clarified the factors governing the voting of Egyptians abroad. It indicated that there are many factors that are expected to govern the attitudes of Egyptians abroad in the Senate elections, some of which are related to the developments in the trends of events in the voting countries, some of which witnessed complex economic conditions against the background of the Corona crisis, and resulted in Negative repercussions on Egyptians abroad. Rather, the varying performance and presence of political forces among Egyptians abroad.
For the factors that seem to govern the voting process for Egyptians abroad, the paper stated that there are several factors that govern this process, including the repercussions of the Corona crisis on the economic conditions of Egyptians abroad, which may contribute to some of them’ indifference to the electoral process. Therefore, turnout is expected to vary greatly. On the ballot boxes in the upcoming elections, and some voters may choose to send ballot papers by mail, for fear of large gatherings. In addition to the high levels of deaths, especially in Western countries and the United States, as well as the increase in the suffering of expatriates, especially after the suspension of flights and studies in some countries and the return of some to the application of compulsory quarantine at home with the return of the virus outbreak, all these factors may push large sectors of the electorate to change their opinion on political participation.
With regard to the expected voting trends, and in the context of what the world is witnessing against the backdrop of the Corona pandemic and its repercussions on the political climate, the developments reveal several potential trends for Egyptians abroad to vote in the Senate elections, which were explained in the following paper:
The government’s response to Corona reinforces a kind of political bias: a sector of Egyptians abroad is likely to view positively the Egyptian state’s response to the conditions of Egyptians who have been affected by the Corona pandemic, and the conduct of procedures for those stranded abroad, which may prompt more voters who support the Egyptian state to engage in Voting process with taking a greater number of health precautions.
Variation in Voting: The turnout of Egyptians abroad is expected to vary widely at the polls in the Senate elections; Where less participation is expected in countries that still impose restrictions on gatherings, as well as in countries that have witnessed significant deaths from the Corona virus.
Consolidating the boycott in the countries incubating Islamists: It is expected that Egyptians residing in countries such as Turkey and Qatar will refrain from participating in the electoral process, or participate by passive voting without choosing any of the participating lists. This is due to the presence of the current of political Islam in these countries, and some of the political currents loyal to them, and may play a role in influencing the Egyptians not to participate.
Societal forces abroad that may prompt non-participation: The spread of the “Corona” disease has contributed to the growing fears of societal forces among Egyptians abroad, in many ways, most notably the possibility of spreading the epidemic more widely due to the lack of commitment to social distance.
The decline in the fortunes of small parties: Egyptian voters abroad are likely to move away from small parties such as AlReida, AlEthad, human rights and citizenship, AlAhrar Aldestroieen, and the people’s voice, due to their weak presence in Egyptian political life, as they seem closer to seasonal parties floating on the surface The political arena during the electoral processes.
The conclusion of the paper came to confirm that the elections for the Senate, although it is the first of its kind after the return of the Shura Council in a new dress, and with clear and specific powers, the political participation of Egyptians abroad is expected to be at a minimum due to the Corona pandemic, and the return of large sectors of Egyptians abroad in addition to the many countries have strong fears of electoral rallies, which prompted the Supreme Elections Committee in Egypt to introduce postal voting.